Counterfactual & future simulations

  • This family includes methods that generate hypothetical or forward-looking scenarios, often by simulating system behavior under altered conditions (e.g. no intervention, future climate).

  • These methods are often used in climate change attribution, ecosystem projections, or to produce synthetic counterfactuals.

  • They are grounded in ecological, processes and are used to generate what would happen under different counterfactual or future assumptions.

Overlap: Strongly interacts with Ecology-Guided Modelling (for embedding process knowledge), Causal ML (when learning-based simulators are used), and Adjusted Methods (when outputs are interpreted causally)

Key feature: Focus on “what-if” scenarios

Usage: Used for scenario building, forecasting, or producing synthetic data to compare against real outcomes


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